Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ift dipli resesyon<\/h1>\n

Resesyon<\/strong>; “\u00fcst \u00fcste iki \u00e7eyrek GSYH’de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fanmas\u0131” olarak ifade edilirken, “ekonominin resesyondan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7tikten sonra yeniden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye girmesi” ise “W tipi resesyon” ya da “\u00e7ift dipli<\/strong> resesyon” olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede tutmas\u0131, kamu, hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizle bor\u00e7lanabilmesi, ECB’nin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam 1 trilyon 850 milyar avroluk destek ve AB’nin 750 milyar avroluk kurtarma paketi, AB’de Covid-19 krizine \u00e7are olamad\u0131. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, 450 milyonluk n\u00fcfusa sahip AB’de g\u00fcndelik hayat\u0131 etkilemeye, ba\u015fta b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam olmak \u00fczere ekonomi i\u00e7in tehdit olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. Salg\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerden turizm, konaklama, hava yollar\u0131, seyahat, yeme-i\u00e7me ve tekstilde firmalar iflas\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine gelirken, baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u015firketler de hayatta kalma m\u00fccadelesi veriyor. Ekonomik toparlanma \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00f6lge ekonomisi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda yeniden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, Covid-19 vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artmas\u0131yla Avro B\u00f6lgesi<\/strong> ekonomisinin \u00e7ift dipli resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fcklenece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Kurumlar da b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Avro B\u00f6lgesi<\/strong> ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 1,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmininde bulunan Bloomberg Economics<\/a>, tahminini y\u00fczde 4 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olarak revize etti.<\/p>\n

JP Morgan ise, Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 9 ve 2021’in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesini beklerken UBS, ilk \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 2,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe \u00e7ekti. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ise b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik ve “risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde daha da e\u011fimli oldu\u011fu” hafif bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nin \u00f6nde gelen ekonomik ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015flar\u0131 Alman Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130svi\u00e7re Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc ve \u0130talya Ulusal \u0130statistik Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, ge\u00e7en ay artan vaka say\u0131s\u0131 ve ekonomilerin k\u0131smen de olsa kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle 2021’in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Avro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in 2021 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1,5’ten y\u00fczde 0,7’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken baz\u0131 kurulu\u015flar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar y\u00fczde 3’e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemediklerini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Allianz SE, 18 Aral\u0131k 2020’de yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporunda Avro B\u00f6lgesi’nin Almanya, Fransa ve \u0130talya gibi kilit ekonomilerinde vaka say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in uygulanan k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n 2021’e uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lge ekonomisinin y\u0131la zay\u0131f ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti oldu\u011funu belirtirken, uzun bir resesyon<\/strong> riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n